CMS’s Office of the Actuary predicts that national healthcare expenditures (NHE) will increase from 17.6% of GDP in 2023 to 20.3% of GDP by 2033. The Keehan et al. (2025) paper provides more details:
National health expenditures are projected to have grown 8.2 percent in 2024 and to increase 7.1 percent in 2025, reflecting continued strong growth in the use of health care services and goods. During the period 2026–27, health spending growth is expected to average 5.6 percent, partly because of a decrease in the share of the population with health insurance (related to the expiration of temporarily enhanced Marketplace premium tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022) and partly because of an anticipated slowdown in utilization growth from recent highs. Each year for the full 2024–33 projection period, national health care expenditure growth (averaging 5.8 percent) is expected to outpace that for the gross domestic product (GDP; averaging 4.3 percent) and to result in a health share of GDP that reaches 20.3 percent by 2033 (up from 17.6 percent in 2023).
Of note, Medicare will comprise an increasing share of health care expenditures.
- Medicare: Increasing from 21% to 26% of NHE
- Medicaid: Increasing from 18% to 19% of NHE
- Private health insurance: Decreasing from 29% to 28% of NHE.
Many more interesting statistics are available from the full article here.
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